Kamala Harris Seizes Lead Over Trump In Both Major Polling Averages: RCP And 538
Vice President and presumptive Democratic nominee for president Kamala Harris has taken the lead over former President Donald Trump in both major polling averages, with nearly a two-point lead in the FiveThirtyEight average.
After President Joe Biden’s debate performance touched off calls for him to drop out, the president announced he would no longer be seeking a second term — and minutes later threw his support behind his veep.
In just two weeks, Harris — who quickly became the presumptive nominee — has completely shifted the dynamics of the race with a fundraising juggernaut, an aggressive campaigning schedule, and consistent polling gains.
And as of this week, Harris holds leads in both the FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics polling averages.
At 538, Harris began with a lead that narrowed to 0.2 percent but has widened to 1.8 percent — Harris 45.2% to Trump 43.4%:
In the RealClearPolitics average, Trump began with nearly a two-point lead, but as of this week, VP Harris has taken a half-point lead — Harris 47.4% to Trump 46.9%:
Neither average should be ignored, but it’s important to understand the differences between the two. RCP calculates its average by looking back at the previous two weeks of qualifying polls and producing a raw, unweighted average.
This has advantages and disadvantages — a candidate’s average could be dragged down by a larger number of polls using a “likely voter” model, for example, or an outlier from a lower-rated pollster.
The FiveThirtyEight average uses a more complicated formula that weights results based on the pollster ratings, sample sizes, and state polling results, which produces a more stable average that theoretically gauges public opinion more completely.
But that doesn’t mean one or the other should be dismissed out of hand. The more volatile RCP average can cause headaches with bad headlines and amplify the effects of outlier polls, but can also more quickly identify a potential trend than the more stable FiveThirtyEight average.
Have a tip for us? tips@mediaite.com
