The Florida Panther Is Clawing Back From Brink of Extinction. Florida Democrats Just Made It Their New Mascot.

The Florida Democrats just announced this weekend that they were adopting as their new mascot the Florida panther, which has clawed its way back from the brink of extinction but remains on the Endangered Species List, as the party strategizes for the upcoming November elections amid a growing GOP voter registration advantage.

After spending years as America’s biggest swing state (perhaps most notoriously in the 2000 Bush v. Gore election), Florida has turned red, with the voter registration advantage Democrats once enjoyed flipping to the Republicans. Under the leadership of Florida Democratic Party (FDP) chair Nikki Fried — the last Democrat to win a statewide election in Florida — the party is embracing its status as a scrappy underdog and that messaging was interwoven throughout the past weekend’s “Leadership Blue” gathering at Disney’s Contemporary Resort, the landmark hotel where President Richard Nixon’s infamous Nov. 17, 1973 “I am not a crook” press conference took place.

Attending the conference was an interesting experience as someone who’s been politically homeless since Donald Trump’s takeover of the GOP. I’ve been asked a lot lately if the Democrats — both President Joe Biden’s reelection and downballot Florida candidates — have a chance in this year’s elections. My answer thus far has been that it’s complicated, it will be tough, but maybe, maybe the door has been cracked slightly open. Below is a collection of observations from the underdog (undercat?) Florida Democrats’ efforts to claw their way back to victory in November.

A mascot and a metaphor 

At the dinner gala Saturday evening, Fried explained they were moving on from the Democrats’ traditional emblem “because there were too many jackasses in the Republican Party for us to continue to be the donkeys.” She announced the Florida panther as the new symbol, citing the animal’s toughness as an inspiration as the party works to “take back Florida.”

Florida panthers “are making a come back, they are resilient, and they won’t back down from a fight,” and neither will the Democrats, declared Fried, who had Tom Petty’s “Won’t Back Down” as her entrance and exit music from the stage.

Both the panther and the party are facing significant numerical challenges.

As NBC News national politics reporter Matt Dixon detailed in his book, Swamp Monsters: Trump vs. DeSantis―the Greatest Show on Earth (or at Least in Florida), the voter registration statistics are the “most obvious — and most dramatic” illustration of “Republican dominance in Florida.” The numbers have steadily shifted from a 700,000 voter advantage for Democrats that helped Barack Obama win Florida in 2008 against John McCain to “a 257,175-person registration advantage” for Democrats in 2018 and a “roughly 300,000-person voter registration advantage” for the GOP in 2022.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) rode that wave to go from a 0.4% squeaker win over Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum (D) in 2018 to a nearly 20 percent victory over former governor/former Republican/former independent/former law firm spokesmodel Charlie Crist (D) in 2022.

DeSantis’ “landslide” walloping of Crist was the foundational narrative the governor used to launch his ill-fated presidential campaign, and in January 2023, he mocked the Florida Democratic Party as “basically a dead, rotten carcass on the side of the road” — language the FDP and Fried then flung back at him eleven months later to commemorate his 2024 campaign’s embarrassing collapse.

In the 1970s, there were only an estimated twenty Florida panthers remaining in the wild. That number has slowly improved to closer to 300, but the big cat remains on the endangered list and continues to face setbacks from development encroaching on critical habitat areas and a depressing number of traffic fatalities.

Florida Republicans mocked the Democrats’ choice of an endangered species for their mascot, with state party chair Evan Power telling the Tallahassee Democrat the panther was an appropriate representation for the Democrats because they hadn’t won a statewide election since Fried was selected Agriculture Commissioner in 2018.

“If you come into contact with a Florida Democrat in the wild, whether they identify as a donkey or a panther, we urge them to notify Nikki Fried and her team immediately,” Power said.

Recent victories give flashes of hope — but are they replicable?

Florida Democrats have managed to eke out a few small yet notable victories recently, including flipping the Jacksonville mayor from red to blue and Tom Keen’s (D) special election win in House District 35 in January, winning an R+10 seat by about 2.6 points over Osceola County School Board Member Erika Booth (R).

Keen was outspent by the Republicans in his race, but not to the overwhelming “Florida State playing Savannah State” level that characterized the DeSantis-Crist contest. A sizable investment by the Florida House Democratic Campaign Committee (FHDCC) meant Keen could actually compete with ad buys and get-out-the-vote efforts.

According to Fox 35 Orlando, voter registration in HD 35 “was almost evenly split between Democrats, Republicans, and unaffiliated voters.” The Democratic consultants and activists I’ve interviewed about this race credited Keen’s victory to the combination of the FHDCC’s investment plus Keen’s own messaging strategy to focus on core issues like Florida’s skyrocketing property insurance costs and the 6-week abortion ban. That served as a sharp contrast to his Republican opponent, who pushed the culture war issues that helped propel DeSantis to national conservative fame but poll poorly with moderate and independent voters.

When I caught up with Keen on Saturday at a pre-dinner reception, he told me that not only did he get outspent, more registered Republicans than Democrats voted in his race and he still won. He believed the abortion issue was a significant factor driving those Republican voters to switch to vote for him, helped with independent voters, and a similar tactic would be the path to victory for him and other Democrats on the November ballot.

That sentiment was echoed throughout the night, including in remarks by former GOP consultant and Lincoln Project co-founder Rick Wilson. After joking how odd it would have been for him to walk into the Democrats’ conference a decade ago, he highlighted the 6-week abortion ban DeSantis signed as an issue that would make the election more uphill and expensive for every Republican on the ballot across the state. Polling showed the law was further to the right than what even many GOP voters preferred, Wilson said.

The dinner gala speakers repeatedly emphasized that abortion would be a key part of the party’s messaging, encouraging voters to both vote for Amendment 4 (the abortion rights ballot initiative) and vote against the Republicans who voted the 6-week ban into law, combining that messaging with an expansive ground game assault. A lot was made of the fact that the party had managed to recruit candidates to run in all of Florida’s 28 congressional districts, and an increased number of the state legislative seats.

With Trump having his own confab at Mar-A-Lago three hours south — a veep audition wrapped in the label of the RNC’s spring meeting — and Florida Democrats’ election struggles, there wasn’t a large media presence at the conference. The small group of reporters gathered at the press table in the back of the dinner gala room weren’t all sure they would find a story to report other than the conflict over Sen. John Fetterman (D-PA) delivering the keynote speech and waiting to see if there were any protesters. Mary Ellen Klas analyzed the Democrats’ challenges in holding their squabbling coalitions together under one tent for Bloomberg Opinion, Politico’s Kimberly Leonard has a short synopsis of the conference here, and Dixon live-tweeted several observations from the event.

Both Disney and FDP staff were serious with the security, with a photo ID check-in at the hotel entrance and again at the reception area, and checking for badges and wristbands to enter any event room. As Klas observed in her reporting, “several prominent progressive elected officials were notably absent, and vendor tables reserved for the progressive and Muslim caucuses were empty.” The security plus the fact that those who disagreed with Fetterman’s vocal support for Israel would have been disincentivized from paying for a ticket to hear him speak, likely helped prevent disruptions — with one key exception that came later.

Fetterman gets a warm Sunshine State welcome, minus one

Fetterman has been one of the most outspoken Democrats of the Senate on Israel, and some Florida progressives had issued a statement objecting to him being picked for the keynote. FDP leadership was undeterred and the tall man in the hoodie was greeted like a rock star when he made a surprise appearance at a pre-dinner reception, getting swarmed by people wanting selfies.

For Fetterman’s impromptu remarks at that reception, he did not use any notes or technological aids, showing the progress of his recovery from his stroke. The conservative accusations about Fetterman’s mental capacity have largely quieted since he has emerged as someone willing to put his fellow Democrats on blast, but it was interesting to observe him in person for the first time myself. As has been reported, his remaining issues relate mostly to processing speech, and when NBC News’ Dixon and I interviewed him before dinner, he used a phone app that transcribed our comments for him to read. There was a staffer present but the senator was looking either at his phone or us, not the staffer, and showed zero signs of being coached or fed answers.

Dixon asked Fetterman about the criticisms from fellow Democrats about his stance on Israel and what he would do if there were any protesters.

“I really celebrate the diversity of thought and beliefs within our party,” said Fetterman, but Democrats needed to “remember that we have this gigantic election” in November, so that would be his focus for the next six months.

He reiterated his staunch support for Israel, including specifically criticizing the protesters on college campuses who had smashed windows and occupied buildings as “completely unproductive” to getting their message heard.

When asked if he anticipated any protesters or hecklers during his keynote, Fetterman replied, “I don’t think so, but if somebody wants to, it’s like, I guess we’ll see, but I have survived a stroke, and a $100 million blowtorch of a Republican [campaign] in 2022, so if you think some randos — I think I’ll be ok.”

The loneliest protester

Fetterman got a warm welcome from the audience as he walked on the stage, having dressed for the occasion by switching out his black hoodie for…another black hoodie, this time with the FDP’s new panther logo on it.

Fetterman cracked jokes about being proud to be called the “Florida Man of the Senate” and was just a few minutes into his remarks when a woman stood up and began shouting about Israel and Gaza. She attempted several times to start chants like “Free free Palestine” as another woman acting as videographer stood up with her, but no one joined in.

Instead the audience drowned her out with clapping and their own chants of “Four more years!” as Fetterman held up a Biden Harris yard sign, as shown in my video below:

Disney security approached the protester and asked her to leave; for a private event on private property, she was now legally trespassing. Deputies with the Orange County Sheriff’s Office (OSCO) swarmed in, placed her under arrest, handcuffed her, and walked her out of the room. The videographer left on her own free will and was not detained.

Attendees were noticeably frustrated waiting for the police; around the 2:00 mark in the above video, you can hear one woman exclaiming, “Where the bloody hell is security?!” then another man yells, “Get out!”

The Washington Examiner’s Ramsey Touchberry reported that Fetterman scoffed afterwards at the protester, calling her “unoriginal” and boring.

For decades, Disney, through its special taxing district, has had a contract to hire off-duty OCSO deputies for law enforcement protection on their property, including the theme parks and hotels. The way this incident unfolded during Fetterman’s speech was a three-minute illustration in how that works — and what is now in jeopardy thanks to DeSantis.

The puppet board members appointed by the governor after his takeover of the district have taken away benefits from firefighters, slashed road maintenance budgets, and even voted to completely defund the roughly $8 million annual budget that pays for the OSCO deputies’ services.

This is a system that has worked well for Disney being able to avoid having their own employees involved in physically removing or arresting anyone, extra income for the police officers, a multimillion dollar supplement to OSCO’s budget, improved safety for Disney guests and employees, and legal restrictions and transparency obligations on the police that relate to the constitutional rights of anyone being arrested.

Remember that above video when DeSantis’ lackeys insist the Disney situation is “settled” or solved. Far from it.

When you’re crazier than Florida Man…

The Republican governor’s foibles aside, the overarching impression from the weekend was that Florida Democrats come across demonstrably less crazy and extreme than their national counterparts, and a Biden campaign that must win over independents would do well to heed their example. To be fair, the party loyalist who is willing to pay for travel and a conference ticket isn’t likely to be a radical rabblerouser but nonetheless, the overall tone was positive, hopeful, and more moderate than one might expect for preaching to the choir of the party faithful.

The dinner kicked off with the pledge of allegiance, a beautifully performed a cappella national anthem, and prayers from Christian, Jewish, and Muslim faith leaders — the sort of reverently patriotic customs the right has often accused the left of disdaining (accusations that are not always meritless).

Even the contentious topic of the Israel-Hamas war was addressed in a conciliatory way, with a message displayed on the screen after the prayers that said, “We are praying for the safe return of the hostages taken on 10/7, the safety of innocent civilians in Gaza, and peace in the region.”

The mood was far more happy warrior than angry radical — from heartfelt remembrances of former Senator and Governor Bob Graham, a old school politician respected on both sides of the aisle who passed away on April 16, to a message from Mark Hamill wishing them good luck defeating “Donald Trump and the Evil Empire.”

None of that means the FlaDems have their heads in the sand about the grim numerical realities. Without exception, every attendee who chatted with me, from elected officials to activists to FDP staffers, was levelheaded about the GOP’s registration advantage, but determined to make the Republicans fight harder and spend more money for every single vote. They were encouraged by Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris’ recent visits and while actually putting Florida in play will require a mindbogglingly expensive investment by the Biden campaign and truckloads of luck, the abortion issue was universally viewed as an unforced error by the Republicans. Keen wasn’t the only one to argue that if DeSantis and the GOP supermajority in the legislature had just stuck with the previous 15-week ban, it would have deprived the Democrats of one of their key messaging weapons.

Even though some seats are highly unlikely to flip blue — rightwing gadfly Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) is cozy in an R+19 district — Fried’s success in recruiting candidates to run in so many districts will force Republicans to burn more money across the state, and every dollar spent in Florida is one the cash-strapped Trump campaign can’t spend elsewhere.

Shocking upsets can happen; in 2012, then-State Rep. Chris Dorworth (R-FL) had been tapped as speaker-designate but never got to wield the gavel after his shocking defeat by Mike Clelland (D). And Kari Lake might have a few thoughts on the matter after she lost the 2022 Arizona governor’s race by a razor-thin 0.6% and the RGA dropped almost $21 million dollars — nearly one out of every four dollars spent nationally — to help DeSantis run up the score in Florida.

Like the national party, the Florida Democrats will have to wrestle to keep their progressive wing on board, especially as divisions over the Israel-Hamas war are expected to persist, but the Republicans have their own fractures over Ukraine funding and internecine battles over the speakership, not to mention Nikki Haley still pulling about 20 percent in Indiana’s primary Tuesday despite exiting the race two months ago.

A panther certainly has sharper teeth and claws than a donkey, but whether the Democrats’ version will prove to be a paper tiger or a feline David who can defeat the GOP Goliath won’t be known until November.

This is an opinion piece. The views expressed in this article are those of just the author.